Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Erat shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.9% vs Erat 47.0% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 61.9%
Defensive zone
Erat 51.1%
Neutral zone
Erat 54.6%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Eller
Erat
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Eller
Erat
Last 7: Eller 3-4 Erat
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
0
Eller
Erat
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Erat
0
2
Eller
Erat
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Erat
1
2
Eller
Erat
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Erat
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (803)
44.4% (180)
+8.9%
Power Play
55.8% (86)
44.4% (18)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (90)
60.0% (15)
-10.0%
On power play, Eller has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Erat shoots left. Eller is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Eller shoots left. Erat is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Home / Away
Eller
Erat
Home
52.8% (525)
51.9% (129)
Away
53.7% (454)
35.7% (84)
By Period
Eller
Erat
P1
53.9%
44.4%
P2
54.8%
45.9%
P3
50.9%
47.2%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.2%
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2014 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 3 | 02:48 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 3 | 18:14 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 2 | 17:51 | Defensive | Martin Erat |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 2 | 14:20 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Nov 22, 2013 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Lars Eller |