Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Komarov on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Komarov 47.6% vs Carrick 52.1% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 54.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 79.6%
Neutral zone
Carrick 61.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
Komarov
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Komarov
Carrick
Last 5: Komarov 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Komarov
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Komarov
3
1
Komarov
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Komarov
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (695)
52.1% (2,513)
-3.5%
Power Play
37.5% (16)
61.3% (75)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (417)
50.7% (430)
-5.1%
On power play, Carrick has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Komarov is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (435).
Komarov shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Komarov
Carrick
Home
49.2% (537)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
45.7% (591)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Komarov
Carrick
P1
47.6%
51.8%
P2
47.3%
52.2%
P3
47.5%
52.4%
Final 5 min
49.6%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Komarov
46.0%▲
42.0%
47.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Komarov |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |