Scouting Report
Marcel Goc holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Goc wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Goc 53.1% vs MacKinnon 44.2% (+10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 77.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 79.6%
20.4%
79.6%
Goc
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Goc
MacKinnon
Last 5: Goc 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Goc
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Goc
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Goc
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Goc
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (881)
42.0% (407)
+13.5%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
51.2% (43)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (260)
50.0% (2)
-4.2%
On even strength, Goc has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Goc is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (432).
Goc shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Goc
MacKinnon
Home
53.6% (552)
42.1% (202)
Away
53.2% (681)
43.6% (250)
By Period
Goc
MacKinnon
P1
54.6%
43.3%
P2
52.7%
41.5%
P3
52.9%
44.2%
OT
52.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
54.5%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Goc
52.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2014 | 3 | 06:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 24, 2014 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Marcel Goc |
| Jan 24, 2014 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 16, 2013 | 3 | 12:16 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |