Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kruger wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kruger 46.9% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kruger 72.6%
Defensive zone
Kruger 86.0%
Neutral zone
Kruger 71.7%
Result
Marcus Kruger favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
Kruger
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Kruger
O'Reilly
Last 7: Kruger 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Kruger
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kruger
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Kruger
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kruger
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (334)
53.6% (392)
-3.6%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
47.2% (36)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (149)
50.0% (28)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kruger is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Kruger shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Kruger
O'Reilly
Home
51.8% (255)
54.4% (237)
Away
40.3% (238)
51.1% (219)
By Period
Kruger
O'Reilly
P1
50.3%
50.3%
P2
43.0%
51.4%
P3
44.7%
55.7%
OT
54.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kruger
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2013 | 3 | 12:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 3 | 12:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 16:01 | Neutral | Marcus Kruger |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 2 | 13:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 2 | 06:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 1 | 04:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |