Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kruger wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kruger 48.5% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.7%
Defensive zone
Kruger 82.8%
Neutral zone
Kruger 64.2%
Result
Marcus Kruger favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Kruger
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kruger
O'Reilly
Last 8: Kruger 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Kruger
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kruger
1
0
Kruger
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kruger
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kruger
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (315)
57.1% (1,367)
-8.2%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
59.4% (286)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (74)
52.5% (257)
-7.9%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kruger is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (259).
Kruger shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Kruger
O'Reilly
Home
49.3% (221)
59.2% (936)
Away
46.5% (170)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Kruger
O'Reilly
P1
55.9%
57.3%
P2
39.1%
57.5%
P3
48.4%
55.0%
OT
100.0%
71.1%
Final 5 min
48.9%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kruger
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2019 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Marcus Kruger |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marcus Kruger |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Marcus Kruger |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |