Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 37.1% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 40.7% vs Backlund 49.0% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 68.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 80.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 66.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Kempe
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Kempe
Backlund
Last 9: Kempe 5-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kempe
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Kempe
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
3
0
Kempe
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (380)
49.7% (13,410)
-11.0%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
51.6% (1,336)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (16)
44.0% (2,446)
-12.7%
On power play, Backlund has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Kempe is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Kempe shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Home / Away
Kempe
Backlund
Home
40.1% (177)
49.7% (8,565)
Away
36.9% (222)
48.3% (8,632)
By Period
Kempe
Backlund
P1
34.7%
48.5%
P2
40.4%
50.3%
P3
38.8%
48.4%
OT
100.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
50.0%▲
38.5%
38.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Mario Kempe |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 2 | 00:32 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 17:35 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 01:05 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | 17:58 | Offensive | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 1 | 01:48 | Neutral | Mario Kempe |