Scouting Report
Mark Arcobello holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Arcobello shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Arcobello 50.1% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Arcobello 88.0%
Defensive zone
Arcobello 56.3%
Neutral zone
Arcobello 68.5%
Result
Mark Arcobello favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Kelly
Arcobello
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kelly
Arcobello
Last 6: Kelly 5-1 Arcobello
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Arcobello
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Arcobello
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Arcobello
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Arcobello
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
50.0% (858)
-0.3%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
62.1% (58)
-33.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
26.1% (23)
+19.4%
On power play, Arcobello has a +33.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Arcobello shoots right. Kelly is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (210).
Kelly shoots left. Arcobello is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Kelly
Arcobello
Home
53.9% (297)
52.7% (478)
Away
42.1% (242)
47.5% (461)
By Period
Kelly
Arcobello
P1
45.4%
52.4%
P2
46.1%
51.7%
P3
54.3%
46.4%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Arcobello
58.0%▲
56.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 18:56 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Mark Arcobello |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 01:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |