Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Turcotte on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Turcotte wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.2% vs Scheifele 47.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 54.4%
Defensive zone
Turcotte 78.9%
Neutral zone
Turcotte 67.6%
Result
Alex Turcotte favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Turcotte
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Turcotte
Scheifele
Last 6: Turcotte 4-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
2
Turcotte
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Turcotte
3
0
Turcotte
Scheifele
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (460)
46.3% (864)
+7.2%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
47.9% (169)
+22.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
50.0% (54)
+50.0%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Turcotte is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Turcotte shoots left. Scheifele is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (853).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Scheifele
Home
53.2% (263)
46.2% (571)
Away
54.8% (208)
47.3% (516)
By Period
Turcotte
Scheifele
P1
57.0%
51.8%
P2
59.6%
45.5%
P3
44.1%
43.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
38.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Scheifele
52.0%▲
50.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |