Scouting Report
Ryan Getzlaf holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Erat on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Erat wins 38.0% vs right-shot opponents — Getzlaf shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 47.0% vs Getzlaf 49.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Getzlaf 62.7%
Defensive zone
Getzlaf 82.8%
Neutral zone
Getzlaf 75.4%
Result
Ryan Getzlaf favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Erat
Getzlaf
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Erat
Getzlaf
Last 5: Erat 4-1 Getzlaf
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
2
0
Erat
Getzlaf
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Erat
2
1
Erat
Getzlaf
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Getzlaf
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (180)
49.5% (1,086)
-5.1%
Power Play
44.4% (18)
57.0% (93)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (15)
43.5% (232)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Erat has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Getzlaf shoots right. Erat is 38.0% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Erat shoots left. Getzlaf is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (902).
Home / Away
Erat
Getzlaf
Home
51.9% (129)
53.0% (664)
Away
35.7% (84)
45.5% (747)
By Period
Erat
Getzlaf
P1
44.4%
48.4%
P2
45.9%
51.7%
P3
47.2%
46.1%
OT
25.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
52.0%
46.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
45.5%
Getzlaf
54.0%▬
53.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 03:28 | Neutral | Martin Erat |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Getzlaf |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 12:02 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Martin Erat |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Martin Erat |