Scouting Report
Tim Connolly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Erat wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Erat 46.8% vs Connolly 47.3% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Erat 59.4%
Defensive zone
Connolly 71.7%
Neutral zone
Connolly 55.9%
Result
Martin Erat favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Erat
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Erat
Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Erat
1
0
Erat
Connolly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Erat
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
47.4% (1,307)
-0.7%
Power Play
45.5% (101)
50.2% (251)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (29)
41.9% (186)
-0.5%
On power play, Connolly has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Erat is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (166).
Erat shoots left. Connolly is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Erat
Connolly
Home
53.2% (252)
48.5% (870)
Away
37.2% (199)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Erat
Connolly
P1
43.4%
47.4%
P2
45.8%
47.7%
P3
50.0%
47.0%
OT
16.7%
37.8%
Final 5 min
49.1%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Erat
38.0%▼
43.5%
46.1%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Martin Erat |