Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Hanzal wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hanzal 55.4% vs Duchene 57.0% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 56.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 55.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 54.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Hanzal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hanzal
Duchene
Last 6: Hanzal 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
5
Hanzal
Duchene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hanzal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (754)
56.5% (527)
-1.6%
Power Play
61.4% (228)
61.6% (185)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (65)
59.3% (27)
-10.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hanzal is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Hanzal shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Hanzal
Duchene
Home
58.1% (539)
57.6% (403)
Away
53.7% (508)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Hanzal
Duchene
P1
56.5%
61.4%
P2
57.9%
58.5%
P3
53.6%
54.9%
OT
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hanzal
58.0%▬
57.0%
56.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2016 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 2 | 00:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 7, 2016 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 3 | 13:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 5, 2015 | 2 | 16:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |