Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.7% vs 54.1%). Hanzal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hanzal 53.7% vs Hertl 54.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.8%
Defensive zone
Hanzal 50.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Hanzal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Hanzal
Hertl
Last 9: Hanzal 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Hanzal
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hanzal
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hanzal
1
0
Hanzal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hanzal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (5,547)
53.6% (8,077)
+0.4%
Power Play
56.7% (1,179)
59.7% (1,916)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (644)
46.0% (793)
+0.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hanzal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,731).
Hanzal shoots left. Hertl is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,755).
Home / Away
Hanzal
Hertl
Home
55.1% (3,687)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
52.3% (3,704)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Hanzal
Hertl
P1
54.9%
53.6%
P2
53.6%
53.9%
P3
52.4%
55.1%
OT
56.5%
46.8%
Final 5 min
51.7%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hanzal
58.0%▬
57.0%
53.7%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2017 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 13:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Martin Hanzal |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 1 | 10:32 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Feb 4, 2017 | OT | 04:25 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 18:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 5, 2013 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |