Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Reasoner on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Thornton wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Reasoner shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 55.5% vs Reasoner 52.5% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reasoner 54.3%
Defensive zone
Reasoner 79.6%
Neutral zone
Reasoner 69.2%
Result
Marty Reasoner favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Thornton
Reasoner
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
8
(8 meetings)
0
8
Thornton
Reasoner
Last 8: Thornton 0-8 Reasoner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reasoner
0
1
Thornton
Reasoner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reasoner
0
4
Thornton
Reasoner
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reasoner
0
3
Thornton
Reasoner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Reasoner
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (704)
55.2% (475)
+0.6%
Power Play
56.7% (208)
45.5% (11)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
56.7% (67)
42.9% (84)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reasoner shoots left. Thornton is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (605).
Thornton shoots left. Reasoner is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Thornton
Reasoner
Home
59.0% (493)
54.8% (263)
Away
53.2% (500)
51.5% (309)
By Period
Thornton
Reasoner
P1
55.3%
55.7%
P2
55.4%
47.8%
P3
57.1%
54.9%
OT
59.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
56.1%
Reasoner
50.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 16:33 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 11:59 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Marty Reasoner |
| Oct 29, 2011 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Marty Reasoner |