Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Byron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Byron 40.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 56.6%
Defensive zone
Byron 53.3%
Neutral zone
Byron 54.2%
Result
Paul Byron favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Barzal
Byron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barzal
Byron
Last 6: Barzal 4-2 Byron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byron
0
1
Barzal
Byron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
0
Barzal
Byron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Byron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Byron
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
40.6% (399)
+1.3%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
55.0% (20)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
26.2% (84)
+16.1%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byron shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Byron is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Barzal
Byron
Home
43.1% (1,895)
41.7% (235)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
36.2% (268)
By Period
Barzal
Byron
P1
40.7%
31.9%
P2
44.4%
46.5%
P3
41.0%
35.3%
OT
27.6%
80.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Byron
54.0%▲
41.0%
38.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2018 | OT | 00:13 | Offensive | Paul Byron |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 03:32 | Neutral | Paul Byron |