Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Byron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 43.4% vs Byron 43.3% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Byron 57.2%
Defensive zone
Barzal 53.8%
Neutral zone
Byron 58.1%
Result
Paul Byron favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Barzal
Byron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Barzal
Byron
Last 6: Barzal 4-2 Byron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byron
0
1
Barzal
Byron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
0
Barzal
Byron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Byron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Byron
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (813)
41.2% (85)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
21.7% (23)
+78.3%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +78.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byron shoots left. Barzal is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Barzal shoots right. Byron is 36.7% vs right-shot opponents (49).
Home / Away
Barzal
Byron
Home
44.3% (436)
37.7% (61)
Away
40.7% (398)
36.2% (47)
By Period
Barzal
Byron
P1
39.7%
35.1%
P2
44.3%
36.8%
P3
44.2%
35.5%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
34.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.6%
Byron
54.0%▲
41.0%
37.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2018 | OT | 00:13 | Offensive | Paul Byron |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 06:09 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 03:32 | Neutral | Paul Byron |