Scouting Report
Mathieu Perreault holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Perreault on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kelly wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Perreault shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 48.8% vs Perreault 51.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kelly 52.5%
Defensive zone
Kelly 76.0%
Neutral zone
Kelly 62.6%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Kelly
Perreault
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Kelly
Perreault
Last 9: Kelly 2-7 Perreault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Perreault
2
3
Kelly
Perreault
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Perreault
0
3
Kelly
Perreault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Perreault
0
1
Kelly
Perreault
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Perreault
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (433)
50.9% (328)
-1.2%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
52.0% (102)
-23.4%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (99)
85.7% (7)
-40.2%
On penalty kill, Perreault has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Perreault shoots left. Kelly is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (329).
Kelly shoots left. Perreault is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Kelly
Perreault
Home
53.9% (297)
55.0% (218)
Away
42.1% (242)
48.2% (220)
By Period
Kelly
Perreault
P1
45.4%
49.3%
P2
46.1%
47.7%
P3
54.3%
59.7%
OT
50.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
53.5%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.6%
Perreault
48.0%▼
51.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2014 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Mathieu Perreault |
| Dec 19, 2014 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Dec 19, 2014 | 1 | 05:59 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 01:15 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 05:17 | Defensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 05:01 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |