Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.6%). Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Perreault wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Perreault 52.4% vs Kesler 52.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Perreault 67.6%
Defensive zone
Kesler 52.8%
Neutral zone
Kesler 53.5%
Result
Mathieu Perreault favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Perreault
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Perreault
Kesler
Last 9: Perreault 3-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Perreault
3
0
Perreault
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Perreault
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Perreault
Kesler
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Perreault
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (685)
53.8% (1,005)
-2.3%
Power Play
58.7% (138)
56.6% (205)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
42.3% (196)
+0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Perreault is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (316).
Perreault shoots left. Kesler is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (982).
Home / Away
Perreault
Kesler
Home
53.1% (399)
54.1% (719)
Away
52.2% (431)
51.1% (687)
By Period
Perreault
Kesler
P1
53.2%
53.1%
P2
52.1%
54.5%
P3
52.3%
50.3%
OT
62.5%
47.4%
Final 5 min
54.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Perreault
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2014 | 2 | 04:43 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 7, 2014 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 7, 2014 | 1 | 17:46 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 1 | 14:01 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 15, 2014 | 1 | 12:08 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 3 | 13:22 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 3 | 10:54 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 10, 2013 | 3 | 08:29 | Offensive | Mathieu Perreault |