Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDonald on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). McDonald wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 48.7% vs Duchene 54.2% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
McDonald leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDonald 56.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 91.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 76.6%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
McDonald
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
McDonald
Duchene
Last 10: McDonald 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
7
2
McDonald
Duchene
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDonald
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (103)
56.8% (706)
-12.1%
Power Play
51.8% (85)
56.1% (57)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
42.3% (130)
+7.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McDonald is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
McDonald shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
McDonald
Duchene
Home
43.8% (105)
56.6% (488)
Away
52.7% (93)
52.3% (405)
By Period
McDonald
Duchene
P1
47.4%
52.0%
P2
48.5%
53.7%
P3
44.9%
58.5%
OT
83.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2013 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 09:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 19:43 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 1 | 12:42 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 20, 2013 | 2 | 00:47 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2013 | 1 | 03:27 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |