Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.2%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.9% vs Duchene 52.0% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.6%
Defensive zone
Smith 72.5%
Neutral zone
Smith 64.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Smith
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Smith
Duchene
Last 5: Smith 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Smith
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Smith
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (475)
52.6% (1,081)
+1.5%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
49.6% (119)
-35.3%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (112)
41.2% (17)
+5.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Smith is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (432).
Smith shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Smith
Duchene
Home
54.4% (274)
54.9% (625)
Away
50.3% (320)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Smith
Duchene
P1
50.0%
52.7%
P2
53.4%
54.1%
P3
53.2%
49.5%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.3%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2015 | 3 | 06:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 3 | 03:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 6, 2015 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 3 | 01:35 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ben Smith |