Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Jooris wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jooris 48.9% vs Duchene 52.0% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jooris 64.3%
Defensive zone
Jooris 58.1%
Neutral zone
Jooris 63.1%
Result
Josh Jooris favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Jooris
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Jooris
Duchene
Last 8: Jooris 2-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Jooris
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Jooris
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
Jooris
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jooris
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (488)
52.6% (1,081)
-4.2%
Power Play
56.3% (32)
49.6% (119)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (47)
41.2% (17)
+5.6%
On power play, Jooris has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Jooris is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (352).
Jooris shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Jooris
Duchene
Home
52.1% (330)
54.9% (625)
Away
43.9% (237)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Jooris
Duchene
P1
45.1%
52.7%
P2
48.1%
54.1%
P3
51.9%
49.5%
OT
60.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.6%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jooris
48.0%▲
43.5%
48.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2015 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Josh Jooris |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 2 | 12:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2015 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Josh Jooris |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 4, 2014 | 1 | 00:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |