Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hanzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hanzal wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hanzal 56.0% vs Duchene 61.5% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 76.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 74.7%
25.3%
74.7%
Hanzal
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Hanzal
Duchene
Last 9: Hanzal 7-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hanzal
4
2
Hanzal
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hanzal
1
0
Hanzal
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hanzal
2
0
Hanzal
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hanzal
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (1,059)
62.2% (802)
-5.1%
Power Play
60.0% (175)
67.3% (153)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (126)
59.4% (143)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hanzal is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (897).
Hanzal shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Hanzal
Duchene
Home
57.6% (682)
66.5% (555)
Away
55.2% (678)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Hanzal
Duchene
P1
57.8%
63.2%
P2
57.8%
59.6%
P3
53.7%
65.0%
OT
55.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hanzal
58.0%▬
57.0%
56.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 2 | 07:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 09:36 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 09:25 | Defensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 06:37 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 3 | 18:52 | Neutral | Martin Hanzal |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Martin Hanzal |
| Oct 29, 2016 | 1 | 10:13 | Neutral | Martin Hanzal |