Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cullen wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cullen 55.2% vs Duchene 57.0% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.8%
Defensive zone
Cullen 80.3%
Neutral zone
Cullen 63.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Cullen
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Cullen
Duchene
Last 7: Cullen 2-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
4
Cullen
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cullen
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cullen
1
0
Cullen
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cullen
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (783)
56.5% (527)
+2.6%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
61.6% (185)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (233)
59.3% (27)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Cullen is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (664).
Cullen shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Home / Away
Cullen
Duchene
Home
59.0% (481)
57.6% (403)
Away
52.9% (563)
58.3% (336)
By Period
Cullen
Duchene
P1
55.7%
61.4%
P2
53.1%
58.5%
P3
58.0%
54.9%
OT
83.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.6%
62.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cullen
58.0%▲
53.5%
55.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 18:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Matt Cullen |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Cullen |
| Dec 9, 2015 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 15:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2015 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |