Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Stajan 50.1% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 93.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 75.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 83.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Duchene
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Duchene
Stajan
Last 8: Duchene 7-1 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Stajan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Stajan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Stajan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
50.9% (627)
+11.3%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
40.0% (15)
+27.3%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
47.6% (126)
+11.8%
On power play, Duchene has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Duchene shoots left. Stajan is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Home / Away
Duchene
Stajan
Home
66.5% (555)
52.4% (401)
Away
58.6% (543)
47.7% (367)
By Period
Duchene
Stajan
P1
63.2%
56.3%
P2
59.6%
45.5%
P3
65.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
65.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 01:16 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2017 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 17:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 07:42 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |