Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 57.0% vs Koivu 55.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 64.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 51.2%
Neutral zone
Koivu 50.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Duchene
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Duchene
Koivu
Last 10: Duchene 8-2 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Koivu
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Duchene
Koivu
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
3
Duchene
Koivu
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (527)
56.6% (1,247)
-0.1%
Power Play
61.6% (185)
61.6% (344)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
59.3% (27)
41.3% (167)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Duchene is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (396).
Duchene shoots left. Koivu is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,142).
Home / Away
Duchene
Koivu
Home
57.6% (403)
58.1% (850)
Away
58.3% (336)
54.3% (908)
By Period
Duchene
Koivu
P1
61.4%
55.3%
P2
58.5%
57.2%
P3
54.9%
55.1%
OT
40.0%
77.3%
Final 5 min
62.1%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2016 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 7, 2015 | OT | 00:31 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Dec 5, 2015 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 08:15 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 2 | 15:26 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 19:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 8, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |