Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 54.6%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Koivu 54.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.5%
Defensive zone
Koivu 56.2%
Neutral zone
Koivu 50.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Duchene
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
0
(9 meetings)
9
0
Duchene
Koivu
Last 9: Duchene 9-0 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
0
Duchene
Koivu
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Koivu
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Koivu
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
55.1% (672)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
56.5% (115)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
49.5% (107)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Koivu has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Duchene shoots left. Koivu is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Duchene
Koivu
Home
56.2% (642)
56.6% (410)
Away
54.3% (580)
52.9% (484)
By Period
Duchene
Koivu
P1
56.2%
51.7%
P2
56.5%
56.7%
P3
52.9%
55.3%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 19:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 05:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2018 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2018 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 21, 2018 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |