Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 15 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Thompson 52.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 76.7%
Defensive zone
Thompson 75.3%
Neutral zone
Thompson 51.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Duchene
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
18
(34 meetings)
16
18
Duchene
Thompson
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Duchene
Thompson
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
4
Duchene
Thompson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
6
9
Duchene
Thompson
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
54.1% (5,812)
-0.2%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
54.8% (135)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
47.9% (1,381)
+1.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Thompson is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (4,683).
Home / Away
Duchene
Thompson
Home
55.6% (6,411)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Duchene
Thompson
P1
54.5%
53.2%
P2
54.5%
52.9%
P3
53.4%
52.8%
OT
56.3%
47.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2019 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 3 | 01:37 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 1 | 17:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 13, 2018 | 1 | 04:53 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 1 | 10:54 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 09:08 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 3 | 05:32 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 3, 2015 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 20, 2015 | 2 | 05:03 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |