Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 35 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Jokinen shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Jokinen 46.4% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 41-33 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 77.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 80.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Duchene
Jokinen
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
33
(74 meetings)
41
33
Duchene
Jokinen
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Jokinen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
9
9
Duchene
Jokinen
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
11
10
Duchene
Jokinen
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
21
14
Duchene
Jokinen
35 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Jokinen
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
45.8% (3,924)
+8.1%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
50.8% (585)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
42.9% (247)
+6.2%
On even strength, Duchene has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jokinen shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Jokinen is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,240).
Home / Away
Duchene
Jokinen
Home
55.6% (6,411)
47.4% (2,345)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
45.3% (2,443)
By Period
Duchene
Jokinen
P1
54.5%
45.6%
P2
54.5%
47.5%
P3
53.4%
45.4%
OT
56.3%
56.1%
Final 5 min
53.7%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Jokinen
38.0%▼
42.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2014 | 2 | 09:38 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 2 | 18:46 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 2 | 15:51 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 2 | 15:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2014 | 1 | 18:51 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 10, 2014 | 1 | 17:43 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2013 | OT | 01:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 10:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 3 | 06:15 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Dec 12, 2013 | 1 | 05:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 3 | 07:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 2 | 00:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 1 | 19:30 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 13:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 05:19 | Neutral | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 20, 2012 | OT | 00:37 | Defensive | Olli Jokinen |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 1 | 18:27 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |