Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Marleau shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Marleau 48.4% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 74.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 74.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Duchene
Marleau
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Duchene
Marleau
Last 10: Duchene 7-3 Marleau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Marleau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Marleau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Marleau
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Marleau
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
47.3% (91)
+9.5%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
50.0% (14)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
46.7% (45)
-4.4%
On even strength, Duchene has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marleau shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Marleau is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (82).
Home / Away
Duchene
Marleau
Home
56.6% (488)
48.6% (74)
Away
52.3% (405)
46.1% (76)
By Period
Duchene
Marleau
P1
52.0%
34.7%
P2
53.7%
48.9%
P3
58.5%
53.2%
OT
46.7%
77.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2013 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 06:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 13:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 13:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 10, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 26, 2013 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |