Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Nash 48.5% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 73.0%
Defensive zone
Nash 51.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Duchene
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
23
(47 meetings)
24
23
Duchene
Nash
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
13
6
Duchene
Nash
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
8
12
Duchene
Nash
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
3
5
Duchene
Nash
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (10,249)
48.7% (4,621)
+5.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,620)
51.0% (249)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (467)
44.9% (550)
+4.4%
On power play, Duchene has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Duchene shoots left. Nash is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,747).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nash
Home
55.6% (6,270)
50.2% (2,740)
Away
52.7% (6,090)
46.7% (2,681)
By Period
Duchene
Nash
P1
54.5%
49.0%
P2
54.5%
47.9%
P3
53.4%
48.0%
OT
55.9%
68.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2021 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 17:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 17:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:13 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:05 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 13:21 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 01:58 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 2 | 10:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |