Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Duchene wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.0% vs Nash 50.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nash 55.7%
Defensive zone
Nash 55.3%
Neutral zone
Nash 58.0%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Duchene
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Duchene
Nash
Last 5: Duchene 1-4 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Nash
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
0
2
Duchene
Nash
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nash
0
2
Duchene
Nash
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,081)
50.1% (752)
+2.5%
Power Play
49.6% (119)
53.8% (104)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
53.9% (102)
-12.7%
On penalty kill, Nash has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Duchene shoots left. Nash is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (647).
Home / Away
Duchene
Nash
Home
54.9% (625)
51.0% (502)
Away
49.3% (592)
50.9% (456)
By Period
Duchene
Nash
P1
52.7%
49.4%
P2
54.1%
50.9%
P3
49.5%
52.1%
OT
57.1%
63.6%
Final 5 min
46.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 18:53 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 16:50 | Neutral | Riley Nash |
| Nov 22, 2014 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Riley Nash |