Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Cervenka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Cervenka 48.0% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 75.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 82.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 78.1%
78.1%
21.9%
Duchene
Cervenka
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Cervenka
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Cervenka
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Cervenka
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Cervenka
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Cervenka
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
40.9% (93)
+13.0%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
66.7% (30)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
0.0% (2)
+49.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +49.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cervenka shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Cervenka is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cervenka
Home
55.6% (6,411)
47.5% (59)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
45.5% (66)
By Period
Duchene
Cervenka
P1
54.5%
32.7%
P2
54.5%
50.0%
P3
53.4%
62.5%
OT
56.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Cervenka
46.0%▬
46.4%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2013 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Roman Cervenka |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 10:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |