Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cervenka shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Cervenka 48.0% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 86.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 82.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Duchene
Cervenka
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Cervenka
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Cervenka
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Cervenka
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Cervenka
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Cervenka
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
40.9% (93)
+15.9%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
66.7% (30)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
0.0% (2)
+42.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +42.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cervenka shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Cervenka is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Duchene
Cervenka
Home
56.6% (488)
47.5% (59)
Away
52.3% (405)
45.5% (66)
By Period
Duchene
Cervenka
P1
52.0%
32.7%
P2
53.7%
50.0%
P3
58.5%
62.5%
OT
46.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Cervenka
46.0%▬
46.4%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2013 | 2 | 11:45 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2013 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 12:48 | Neutral | Roman Cervenka |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 3 | 10:52 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 28, 2013 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |