Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — O'Marra shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs O'Marra 46.9% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 72.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 64.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 68.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Duchene
O'Marra
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
O'Marra
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 O'Marra
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
O'Marra
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Marra
0
1
Duchene
O'Marra
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
O'Marra
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Marra
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (10,249)
47.2% (218)
+6.8%
Power Play
56.9% (1,620)
20.0% (5)
+36.9%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (467)
33.3% (15)
+16.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +36.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Marra shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,422).
Duchene shoots left. O'Marra is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Marra
Home
55.6% (6,270)
52.0% (150)
Away
52.7% (6,090)
35.5% (93)
By Period
Duchene
O'Marra
P1
54.5%
52.2%
P2
54.5%
44.3%
P3
53.4%
38.1%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
54.2%
O'Marra
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 17:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Marra |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Marra |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |