Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.4% vs O'Marra 45.0% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 68.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 61.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 63.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Duchene
O'Marra
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
O'Marra
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 O'Marra
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
O'Marra
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Marra
0
1
Duchene
O'Marra
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
O'Marra
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
O'Marra
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (1,070)
43.7% (158)
+6.8%
Power Play
49.3% (136)
20.0% (5)
+29.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (20)
36.4% (11)
+13.6%
On power play, Duchene has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Marra shoots right. Duchene is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Duchene shoots left. O'Marra is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Duchene
O'Marra
Home
49.8% (633)
48.1% (108)
Away
51.1% (613)
32.9% (70)
By Period
Duchene
O'Marra
P1
51.0%
51.5%
P2
51.5%
38.7%
P3
49.1%
32.6%
OT
36.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
O'Marra
50.0%▲
47.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 17:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Marra |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 3 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2011 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Marra |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |