Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Koivu 51.8% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 25-20 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 77.9%
Defensive zone
Koivu 65.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Duchene
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
20
(45 meetings)
25
20
Duchene
Koivu
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
12
2
Duchene
Koivu
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
1
9
Duchene
Koivu
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
12
9
Duchene
Koivu
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
51.9% (3,221)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
59.3% (437)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
48.0% (764)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Koivu is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,153).
Home / Away
Duchene
Koivu
Home
55.6% (6,411)
53.5% (2,281)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
50.1% (2,209)
By Period
Duchene
Koivu
P1
54.5%
51.1%
P2
54.5%
52.6%
P3
53.4%
51.8%
OT
56.3%
52.3%
Final 5 min
53.7%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2014 | 2 | 11:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 1 | 13:30 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 12:55 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 10:23 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 10:18 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 1 | 07:04 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 2, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |