Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Koivu 51.2% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 79.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 55.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 72.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Duchene
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
5
(17 meetings)
12
5
Duchene
Koivu
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
0
Duchene
Koivu
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Koivu
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
4
Duchene
Koivu
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
52.5% (631)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
49.3% (73)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
47.6% (147)
-5.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Koivu is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Duchene
Koivu
Home
56.6% (488)
51.3% (431)
Away
52.3% (405)
51.4% (420)
By Period
Duchene
Koivu
P1
52.0%
51.9%
P2
53.7%
52.9%
P3
58.5%
49.8%
OT
46.7%
41.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 09:25 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 24, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 3 | 12:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 2 | 03:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 6, 2013 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |