Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 22 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 35-25 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 74.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 72.8%
72.8%
27.2%
Duchene
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
25
(60 meetings)
35
25
Duchene
Horcoff
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
15
7
Duchene
Horcoff
22 total
Defensive Zone
Even
8
8
Duchene
Horcoff
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
12
10
Duchene
Horcoff
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
50.6% (3,133)
+3.3%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
51.4% (555)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
43.0% (567)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
Duchene
Horcoff
Home
55.6% (6,411)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Duchene
Horcoff
P1
54.5%
48.2%
P2
54.5%
49.5%
P3
53.4%
50.9%
OT
56.3%
51.9%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 1 | 19:25 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2013 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 1 | 15:11 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 1, 2013 | 1 | 09:26 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 19:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |