Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Duchene wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.2% vs Horcoff 49.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.1%
Defensive zone
Duchene 59.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 82.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Duchene
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Duchene
Horcoff
Last 10: Duchene 9-1 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
2
Duchene
Horcoff
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Horcoff
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
1
Duchene
Horcoff
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
56.8% (706)
46.9% (318)
+9.9%
Power Play
56.1% (57)
64.9% (94)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (130)
39.8% (88)
+2.5%
On even strength, Duchene has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Duchene is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Duchene shoots left. Horcoff is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Duchene
Horcoff
Home
56.6% (488)
46.7% (289)
Away
52.3% (405)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Duchene
Horcoff
P1
52.0%
49.4%
P2
53.7%
47.0%
P3
58.5%
50.9%
OT
46.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
51.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 3 | 06:41 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 19, 2013 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 2 | 17:05 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 19:44 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 12, 2013 | 1 | 00:30 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 28, 2013 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |