Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Schaller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Schaller 43.0% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 87.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 51.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 69.8%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 71.6%
71.6%
28.4%
Duchene
Schaller
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Duchene
Schaller
Last 9: Duchene 5-4 Schaller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
1
Duchene
Schaller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schaller
1
2
Duchene
Schaller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Schaller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Schaller
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
42.2% (419)
+11.7%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
66.7% (12)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
36.9% (111)
+12.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schaller shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Duchene shoots left. Schaller is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (360).
Home / Away
Duchene
Schaller
Home
55.6% (6,411)
42.5% (240)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
41.1% (302)
By Period
Duchene
Schaller
P1
54.5%
42.6%
P2
54.5%
42.0%
P3
53.4%
39.9%
OT
56.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Schaller
42.0%▼
45.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 1 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tim Schaller |
| Dec 30, 2017 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Tim Schaller |
| Jan 20, 2016 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 17:10 | Neutral | Tim Schaller |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Tim Schaller |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |