Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.0% vs Smith 46.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 61.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 60.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 71.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Duchene
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Duchene
Smith
Last 5: Duchene 3-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Smith
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Duchene
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,081)
44.7% (190)
+7.9%
Power Play
49.6% (119)
40.0% (10)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
45.2% (31)
-4.0%
On power play, Duchene has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Duchene is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (744).
Duchene shoots left. Smith is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Home / Away
Duchene
Smith
Home
54.9% (625)
46.8% (111)
Away
49.3% (592)
42.5% (120)
By Period
Duchene
Smith
P1
52.7%
44.6%
P2
54.1%
43.6%
P3
49.5%
46.2%
OT
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 07:32 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 00:52 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 10:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 06:38 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |