Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.8% vs 48.0%). Look for Ellis on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 48.9% vs Ellis 48.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ellis 56.9%
Defensive zone
Henrique 53.6%
Neutral zone
Ellis 56.1%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Henrique
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Henrique
Ellis
Last 5: Henrique 1-4 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Ellis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
1
Henrique
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
3
Henrique
Ellis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (816)
48.0% (223)
+0.0%
Power Play
54.8% (62)
0.0% (1)
+54.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (127)
50.0% (20)
+1.2%
On power play, Henrique has a +54.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Henrique is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Henrique shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Henrique
Ellis
Home
51.2% (461)
51.4% (107)
Away
46.9% (565)
45.3% (137)
By Period
Henrique
Ellis
P1
49.5%
46.7%
P2
48.5%
47.3%
P3
49.1%
50.8%
Final 5 min
50.4%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
48.8%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 16:10 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 3 | 01:29 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Jan 24, 2012 | 1 | 08:54 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |