Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Ellis 48.5% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 87.6%
Defensive zone
Spezza 64.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 76.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Spezza
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Spezza
Ellis
Last 6: Spezza 5-1 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Ellis
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Ellis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Ellis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
48.0% (223)
+5.8%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
0.0% (1)
+52.8%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
50.0% (20)
-0.6%
On power play, Spezza has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. Ellis is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (83).
Home / Away
Spezza
Ellis
Home
56.4% (853)
51.4% (107)
Away
50.5% (847)
45.3% (137)
By Period
Spezza
Ellis
P1
53.4%
46.7%
P2
54.2%
47.3%
P3
53.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
52.7%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2012 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 2 | 07:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 20, 2011 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 5, 2011 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |