Scouting Report
Jerred Smithson holds a +16.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Smithson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smithson wins 59.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ellis shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smithson 55.7% vs Ellis 44.7% (+16.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smithson 61.1%
Defensive zone
Smithson 84.0%
Neutral zone
Smithson 64.1%
Result
Jerred Smithson favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Smithson
Ellis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Smithson
Ellis
Last 5: Smithson 3-2 Ellis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
0
2
Smithson
Ellis
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smithson
3
0
Smithson
Ellis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smithson
Ellis
Edge
Even Strength
59.4% (175)
41.9% (129)
+17.5%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
0.0% (3)
+66.7%
Penalty Kill
52.6% (38)
44.1% (34)
+8.5%
On power play, Smithson has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ellis shoots left. Smithson is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (134).
Smithson shoots right. Ellis is 25.0% vs right-shot opponents (52).
Home / Away
Smithson
Ellis
Home
63.2% (106)
39.6% (53)
Away
53.6% (110)
42.5% (113)
By Period
Smithson
Ellis
P1
69.6%
40.7%
P2
48.3%
46.0%
P3
57.4%
34.9%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
64.4%
36.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smithson
52.0%▼
58.0%
58.3%
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
41.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2013 | OT | 02:04 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 13:57 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Jerred Smithson |