Scouting Report
Matt Ellis holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Ribeiro on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Ribeiro 43.2% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 77.8%
Defensive zone
Ellis 77.6%
Neutral zone
Ellis 54.2%
Result
Mike Ribeiro favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Ellis
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Ellis
Ribeiro
Last 6: Ellis 3-3 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ribeiro
1
3
Ellis
Ribeiro
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ellis
2
0
Ellis
Ribeiro
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
42.9% (4,887)
+4.4%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
45.6% (930)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
33.3% (147)
+8.8%
On power play, Ribeiro has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Ellis shoots left. Ribeiro is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,885).
Home / Away
Ellis
Ribeiro
Home
48.5% (303)
44.1% (3,144)
Away
44.8% (406)
41.9% (2,837)
By Period
Ellis
Ribeiro
P1
50.0%
42.6%
P2
46.2%
44.3%
P3
41.3%
41.8%
OT
100.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
42.4%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2015 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 10:28 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 02:52 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 21, 2015 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |