Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +12.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Ellis wins 35.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Bergeron 59.2% (-12.8%)
H2H factor
Bergeron leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Ellis 91.4%
Defensive zone
Ellis 91.6%
Neutral zone
Ellis 92.7%
Result
Matt Ellis favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Ellis
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
10
(12 meetings)
2
10
Ellis
Bergeron
Last 10: Ellis 1-9 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Ellis
Bergeron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
4
Ellis
Bergeron
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
0
4
Ellis
Bergeron
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
60.1% (13,938)
-12.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.8% (3,213)
-32.2%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
53.0% (2,776)
-10.9%
On power play, Bergeron has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Ellis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Ellis shoots left. Bergeron is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (13,273).
Home / Away
Ellis
Bergeron
Home
48.5% (303)
61.2% (10,028)
Away
44.8% (406)
57.3% (9,930)
By Period
Ellis
Bergeron
P1
50.0%
59.3%
P2
46.2%
60.0%
P3
41.3%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
57.9%
Final 5 min
42.4%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2015 | 2 | 09:21 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Mar 17, 2015 | 2 | 09:18 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Apr 12, 2014 | 2 | 13:58 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 15:39 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Dec 19, 2013 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 31, 2013 | 2 | 02:41 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Mar 8, 2012 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 3 | 07:47 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Feb 8, 2012 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 2 | 08:58 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Nov 12, 2011 | 1 | 02:27 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |