Scouting Report
Samuel Pahlsson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ellis on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ellis 46.8% vs Pahlsson 52.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ellis 50.4%
Defensive zone
Pahlsson 85.6%
Neutral zone
Pahlsson 59.8%
Result
Samuel Pahlsson favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Ellis
Pahlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Ellis
Pahlsson
Last 9: Ellis 5-4 Pahlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Pahlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ellis
Pahlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ellis
3
2
Ellis
Pahlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ellis
Pahlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (607)
53.0% (1,716)
-5.7%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.0% (35)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (95)
49.8% (548)
-7.7%
On power play, Pahlsson has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pahlsson shoots left. Ellis is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Ellis shoots left. Pahlsson is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,644).
Home / Away
Ellis
Pahlsson
Home
48.5% (303)
54.4% (1,136)
Away
44.8% (406)
50.3% (1,188)
By Period
Ellis
Pahlsson
P1
50.0%
54.6%
P2
46.2%
50.7%
P3
41.3%
51.8%
OT
100.0%
44.8%
Final 5 min
42.4%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ellis
42.0%▼
49.0%
46.4%
Pahlsson
54.0%▼
59.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 19:41 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 3 | 02:04 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Mar 3, 2012 | 1 | 01:29 | Defensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Matt Ellis |
| Nov 25, 2011 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 12:10 | Neutral | Matt Ellis |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 08:45 | Offensive | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 08:38 | Neutral | Samuel Pahlsson |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 13:12 | Neutral | Samuel Pahlsson |