Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.9% vs Stajan 51.4% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 71.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 81.2%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 75.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Pavelski
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
Stajan
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Stajan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Stajan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
1
Pavelski
Stajan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (682)
52.4% (731)
+1.0%
Power Play
63.7% (168)
45.8% (59)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (160)
48.1% (52)
+0.0%
On power play, Pavelski has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Pavelski shoots right. Stajan is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stajan
Home
59.0% (527)
52.9% (427)
Away
49.3% (493)
50.2% (418)
By Period
Pavelski
Stajan
P1
50.8%
49.6%
P2
58.9%
53.2%
P3
53.6%
51.5%
OT
42.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2011 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2011 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 3 | 01:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |