Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stajan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Stajan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Stajan 50.3% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Stajan leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stajan 65.3%
Defensive zone
Stajan 90.1%
Neutral zone
Stajan 77.3%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 83.8%
16.2%
83.8%
Pavelski
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Pavelski
Stajan
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Stajan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
8
Pavelski
Stajan
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Stajan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
51.1% (503)
+3.9%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
42.9% (7)
+19.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
46.7% (92)
+5.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (826).
Pavelski shoots right. Stajan is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Stajan
Home
58.1% (580)
55.1% (336)
Away
53.8% (567)
44.4% (266)
By Period
Pavelski
Stajan
P1
53.4%
51.3%
P2
58.6%
47.7%
P3
56.4%
52.4%
Final 5 min
57.4%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2015 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 2 | 08:10 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 1 | 04:17 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 9, 2015 | 1 | 04:00 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 4, 2015 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 3 | 06:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 2 | 02:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Jan 17, 2015 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 6, 2014 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |