Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.5% vs 43.9%). Look for Lombardi on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lombardi wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lombardi 46.1% vs Gagner 44.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lombardi 56.1%
Defensive zone
Gagner 52.5%
Neutral zone
Lombardi 51.7%
Result
Matthew Lombardi favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Lombardi
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lombardi
Gagner
Last 7: Lombardi 4-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lombardi
2
0
Lombardi
Gagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Lombardi
Gagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lombardi
2
1
Lombardi
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lombardi
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (203)
42.1% (575)
+4.7%
Power Play
33.3% (27)
55.3% (123)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
34.9% (43)
-18.2%
On power play, Gagner has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Lombardi is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Lombardi shoots left. Gagner is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Lombardi
Gagner
Home
44.0% (109)
45.6% (375)
Away
44.9% (127)
42.1% (366)
By Period
Lombardi
Gagner
P1
47.0%
40.1%
P2
42.2%
42.2%
P3
43.5%
48.2%
OT
100.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
54.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lombardi
46.0%▲
43.0%
44.5%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 06:03 | Neutral | Matthew Lombardi |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Matthew Lombardi |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 15:24 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 16:35 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | Matthew Lombardi |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Matthew Lombardi |