Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Peca wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Peca 50.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Peca 68.1%
Defensive zone
Peca 63.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.1%
Result
Matthew Peca favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Peca
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Peca
Dowd
Last 9: Peca 4-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Peca
1
0
Peca
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Peca
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Peca
3
2
Peca
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Peca
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (423)
52.4% (6,009)
-0.9%
Power Play
12.5% (8)
56.1% (164)
-43.6%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (43)
44.1% (1,635)
+0.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +43.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Peca is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Peca shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Peca
Dowd
Home
46.1% (193)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
53.0% (281)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Peca
Dowd
P1
56.6%
51.7%
P2
44.4%
50.4%
P3
50.3%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Peca
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2018 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 12:45 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Matthew Peca |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 1 | 02:28 | Neutral | Matthew Peca |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 2 | 15:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 2 | 10:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |